Predicting the Global Future
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions: Future challenges
Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species’ range shifts, changes in phenology and species’ extinctions, accurate projections of species’ response...
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Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model In...
متن کاملPredicting the future
LEO HOWE and ALAN WAIN (eds), Predictinig the future, Cambridge University Press, 1993, pp. vi, 195, illus., £18.95, $29.95 (0-521-41323-0). Predicting the future is a risky business and few of the authors are prepared to try it. Rather they analyse the past and present. Stephen Hawking does however consider the future of the universe. He would have liked at one stage to write a history of the ...
متن کاملPredicting the Future
We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncertain event and compare it to both the objective probability of its occurrence ...
متن کاملPredicting the Long Term Future
Linear and nonlinear analyses are performed on a generic carbon cycle model, exploiting available empirical information and avoiding detailed physics as far as possible. It is shown that the ability to reproduce atmospheric CO2 historical data of past decades is neither necessary nor sufficient to establish credibility for the century-timescale predictions. This is because the relevant historic...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: BioScience
سال: 1999
ISSN: 0006-3568
DOI: 10.2307/1313580